India’s monsoon is in danger and hotter, drier conditions are forecast across much of the world as a stronger El Niño weather system is taking hold, weather experts have warned.
António Guterres, the UN secretary general, said the strengthening El Niño was “adding fuel to a planet already on fire” and pushing the world into “uncharted territory”.
The El Niño system will strengthen from August to October, which will bring higher temperatures globally, with increasing rainfall in some regions while others suffer drought, according to data and forecasts released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Friday.
Marine heatwaves have already shocked scientists this year and are set to intensify: the WMO said temperatures were likely to exceed 2.9C above normal in several regions.
“The Pacific waters driving it have never been this warm this early in an El Niño, and temperatures are still increasing,” Guterres said. “[This year] risks shattering every seasonal record, and driving even more severe effects worldwide. We are in uncharted territory.”
The risk of a weakened monsoon, which brings the rain on which Indian farmers rely, was highlighted as the forecast gave an “enhancement in the probability for below-normal rainfall”, which would produce increased drought, floods and wildfire risk around the Indian Ocean basin. Drier conditions are also likely across parts of equatorial Africa to the west of the Horn of Africa, across the south and east of Australia, large parts of South America and in North America.
Higher than normal rainfall is expected in southern Europe, central Asia and the Horn of Africa and south-eastern South America.
Extreme weather has already caused havoc around the world this summer, with record-breaking heatwaves beginning in May in the UK, and wildfires across France and Spain that have destroyed villages and displaced hundreds of thousands of people.
Scientists have warned this year of the development of an El Niño, a weather system in the Pacific that frequently affects temperatures and rainfall around the world. Some El Niño years in the past have been relatively mild, but scientists have said that this year’s has been supercharged by the climate crisis.
Warmer waters – earlier in the year than usual and with water temperatures still increasing – have led to predictions of a “super El Niño” forming. The WMO does not use this term, but has said that the weather system developing is likely to be significantly stronger and more intense than usual. Friday’s forecasts were the organisation’s latest update, covering August to October... See More